Official Site | Discord | Steam | Twitter | Reddit | Twitch | FB | YouTube | Wikia

Why 5% is a big deal


#1

Premise 1: King is trustworthy so long as the odds of him being BD are greater than a random non-king D1
Premise 2: People won’t claim to someone who isn’t trustworthy be default

Odds of being evil (Cult/Unseen/NK) if you are not king:

3/15 or 0.2 or 20%

Odds of being non-BD if you are not king:

2 or 3 neuts averages at 2.5 neuts. 3 non-neut non-BD for a total of 5.5

5.5/15 or ~0.37 or ~37%

37 > 35
37 < 40

thus the 5% crossed a thresh hold that makes king go from most trustworthy to least trustworthy.

Oh and if you assume that all 3 neuts spawn then its 6/15 or 0.4 or 40% = 40% meaning King is NEVER trustworthy now.


#2

I always policy lynch the king
It works 40% of the time, 100% of the time.


#3

but thats not effective since king can be good and then you wont be able to lynch next day


#4

That’s why I only lynch the good king when i’m evil :^)

works every time


#5

Wait. So 60% of the time it works 40% of the time and 40% of the time it works 80% of the time


#6

but dont forget that there is also this 0% chance and 0*80=0 so there is 0 chance of no success


#7

0% chance of what?


#8

of failing


#9

Prove it mathmaticaly


#10

@MathBlade


#11

Yeah he’s not coming


#12

rip


#13

I need time to process this and I am getting ready for work. Will respond later.


#14

When is later btw?


#15

Dunno, it works for me every time expect in times when it doesn’t.


#16

Well it never seems to work for me except when it does


#17

60% of the time it works every time


#18

60% of the time it works 80% of the time


#19

Err… 40% of the time


#20

5% is a big deal rn