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The Current Meta


#1

I would like this thread to be a bullet point list of Blue Dragon things that compose the current meta. I will begin with some things that I don’t expect to be controversial but contributions and feedback are appreciated.

General:

  • Do not whisper King Day 2 unless it is proven Cult game.
    – If Mastermind reads your whisper with Little Bird, all the Unseen will know what you said. Worst case scenario, which is not extremely unlikely, is King is Evil and no Nobles read your whisper which means all 4 Unseen know the contents of your whisper but 0 Blue Dragon do.

  • Do not step up to become King early game as a non-royal if you are not confirmed and there are other non-suspicious royals.
    – The idea here is slightly complicated but in brief, royals are encouraged to step largely because getting elected as a royal claim may actually confirm your royal claim to a certain extent, since fake royal claims are unlikely to get enough votes.

  • Share your complete logs instead of just last night’s logs, unless there is a compelling reason not to.
    – It’s more difficult to fake complete logs than it is a single night’s logs, so the logs from previous nights lend credibility to the logs after.


Court Wizard:

  • Always Tornado the first night unless you expect to successfully aid someone with Empower.
    – There is no class that can mimic this ability except Ritualist.

Noble:

  • Always use Noble Twin on the first trial for future reference that your starting class was Noble. If someone counter-claims it then just do it again.
    – Apostle, Possessor and Mastermind sometimes claim Noble because they can fake (to a certain extent) all of your abilities except Noble Twin.

Observer:

  • Always Follow the first night.
    – There is no class besides Seeker that can fake a successful Follow with reasonable expectation of success.

#2

What if there is no Royals beside Prince?

The same thing is with Tornado, they can aid or harm BD in some fashion. And both can confirm Court Wizard in some way.

Uhhh how often “Peek” was more useful than “Follow” N1?


#3

What if there is no Royals beside Prince?

Thanks for pointing out that special case, I will update the OP.

The same thing is with Tornado, they can aid or harm BD in some fashion. And both can confirm Court Wizard in some way.

A random Tornado is more likely to help BD than harm BD, and pulling off a random Tornado is more likely than aiding someone with a random Empower.

Uhhh how often “Peek” was more useful than “Follow” N1?

A night one Peek is not more useful than night one Follow because it’s not trustworthy. Even if it’s correct.


#4

I’m assuming you have some sort of statistics or somethin’ to back up your statement. If not, then how did you calculate that?


#5

I don’t have a rigorous proof, but it’s very obvious.

In order to confirm yourself with an Empower, you have to target an offensive who is attacked or a support who is occupied or redirected.

But in order to confirm yourself with a Tornado, all you have to do is visit 2 people.


#6

There is nothing obvious with something that relies on statistics. Just saying.


#7

Some truths are counter-intuitive yes, but no reason to think that’s the case here.


#8

Idk about experimental odds but N1 given random action’s a tornado only matters if you swap a player with their target or their target with someone they can’t normally target.

So for example swapping Mastermind with the Assassin target

Any other swap is statistically cancelled out. Swapping Prince into a Physicians kill happens as much as swapping a Physician into a Princes Kill (technically higher because multiple physicians but not actually relevant in the grand scheme)

However the targets which are the most likely to be impacted meaningful are the starting scum. Because they have the most players they can’t target. AND they cause the most impact when they are redirected this way.

(Redirecting a sheriff to himself loses BD 1/9th of a night. Redirecting a CL to himself loses scum 2/3rds of a night)


#9

And this is why I like silent swaps


#10

Wouldn’t that be way too confusing?


#11

Only if people use them willy-nilly


#12

Nightwatch can too.
but that’s only from a convert.